What can we gleam from the penultimate CFP rankings?
Let's work our way down the list at scenarios: 1. Even if they lose in the SEC title game, Alabama is probably in. The fact the CFP still have 2-loss Florida ranked #7 means that if the upset happens, Alabama won't be penalized too much. 2. Notre Dame is probably in, barring a blowout loss in ACC title game. Even if Clemson avenges their only loss, that still puts the Irish at 10-1, with their only loss being to the #3 team in the nation, who they already beat. As long as the game is close, they won't drop out of top 4. If the Irish get blown out? All bets are off. 3. Clemson is in with a win, but will be out with a loss. The CFP isn't going to take a 2-loss non-conference champion. 4. Ohio State is in, if they win. If they lose in the upset to Northwestern, they are out. 5. Texas A&M needs help. They need Northwestern to upset the Buckeyes, the Irish to get the season sweep against Clemson, or, barring a Clemson loss, an absolute blowout victory by Clemson that convinces the CFP to drop ND below #4. 6. Iowa State is out. Sorry, but even as Big XII champ, they aren't going to take a 2-loss Big XII team over a 1 loss Texas A&M. 7. Florida is out, even if they upset Alabama in the SEC title game. The CFP isn't going to take a 2-loss SEC champ over two 1-loss teams from the other division, or a 1-loss Notre Dame or Clemson. LSU ended any hope the Florida Gators had. 8. Georgia is out. A 2-loss non-SEC division winner, let alone champ, isn't getting selected. 9. Cincinnati. Look. Cute story, but there is a reason that despite being undefeated, the CFP only has them ranked #9. Their best win was SMU. They are a mid-major program that played a mid-major schedule. Give that schedule to half of the teams in the P5, and they go undefeated too. In the words of the lovely Shania Twain, "That don't impress me much." 10. Oklahoma: See Iowa State. What this all boils down to: Barring any major upsets, the College Football Playoff will be the four teams the CFP committee currently has ranked 1-4. Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson and Ohio State. OK, check my logic. Agree? Disagree? Anything I failed to consider?
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