The college football playoff expansion has been pushed back to at least the end of the 2025 season. Multiple sources confirmed the vote was 8-3, with the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC voting against expansion. B10 and P12 are both trying to keep the Rose Bowl happy, they also want automatic bids. I think a lot of this is issues of the B10, P12 and ACC all concerned that the SEC was forcing the expansion because of the timing of the Texas/OU switch and the release of the expansion concept before it was voted on. I see a lot of misplaced focus here by the three conferences. The SEC took half of the seeds last year and the Michigan and Cincy didn't put up much of a fight in the path of the SEC Championship Game rematch. And the thing is, they were both really good teams. They just got the shit kicked out of them by great teams. Because there is nothing else to talk about, here are some possible Winners and losers from the announcement: WINNERS SEC: The SEC didn't really care about a 12-team playoff. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey was part of the committee that produced the 12-team format proposal, but Sankey always said his motivation was what’s best for the sport, not the SEC’s personal stake. And Sankey was point. The SEC figures to thrive whether it be four or 12 teams. The SEC is coming off a season in which it produced two of the four playoff teams, and both Georgia and Alabama advanced to the championship game. That exact scenario also happened in 2017. In a 12-team format, the SEC likely would get at least three teams in the field most years and sometimes might get four or five. But in a four-team format, the SEC is virtually guaranteed one team and, as Bama and Georgia have proven, often could have two. Fifty percent of the playoff field only strengthens SEC bragging rights, something that won't happen in the expanded playoff field. ACC: The ACC doesn’t have much clout in college football, especially when compared to the SEC. But any change to the current playoff contract required unanimous support. Which means the ACC had a filibuster that could prevent change before 2026. If Clemson returns to its consistently powerful self, the Tigers will have a good shot at a playoff berth. If Clemson struggles like it did in 2021 (especially with a leadership void caused by the departure of defensive coordinator Brent Venables, offensive coordinator Tony Elliott and athletics director Dan Radakovich), the Tigers might not be contenders for even a 12-team playoff. The ACC’s power is sort of hollow as it is only useful until 2026, maybe they are hoping to have a contender by then? Rose Bowl: The four-team format maintains the status quo, which is fine with Pasadena. A Big Ten/Pac-12 showdown on New Year’s Day is what the Rose Bowl wants, while keeping some status within the playoff. The Rose Bowl has always been about the Rose Bowl, and not about college football. Big TenThe Big Ten, mainly Ohio State, has been a playoff constant. The Big Ten was omitted from the playoff in 2017 and 2018, but most years, it can count on a team. The 12-team format would add more Big Ten teams most years, but the Big Ten’s status means it will stand taller than all the other non-SEC leagues scrambling for a limited playoff berth and will likely give a recruiting bump if it can field multiple teams to an expanded playoff. The only two angles I can see are the Rose Bowl and the F the SEC for why the B10 suddenly is hard against it. ESPN: The current network for the playoff has drawn the ire of the other conferences for its role in SEC expansion and the 12-team proposal. ESPN would have had contractual rights to any format change through 2025 and still will have an exclusive negotiating window, starting in October 2024, for a new format. But in two years, perhaps the angst over ESPN’s involvement in the sport will have lessened, and ESPN could have a better shot at securing exclusive rights to an expanded playoff. I could see ESPN sharing some games with other networks, but there isn't another network that is going to go all in to the same extent as ESPN to get the games. LOSERS Mid-majors: The 12-team format was about money, yes, with 11 games to sell to the networks instead of just three. But the 12-team format also was about opportunity. Cincinnati finally cracked the code in 2021 – go undefeated, with a high-level non-conference victory. The Bearcats won at Notre Dame in September, then navigated the American Conference schedule. Cincinnati lost to Alabama 27-6 in the national semifinal Cotton Bowl. But mid-majors rarely can schedule an opponent like Notre Dame, much less win, so their playoff chances for the next four seasons remain miniscule. Especially when Cincy moves to the B12. Most bowl games: The six major bowls host a semifinal once every three years. Which means two of every three years, they host a game that is comparatively meaningless. The one downside to any playoff format is how it cripples the traditional college football postseason. Even major bowls suffer in declining ticket sales and television viewership, under the shadow of the playoff. In a 12-team format, every major bowl could host a playoff game every year. Big 12 leftovers: The departure of OU and Texas to the SEC was softened by the news of a possible expanded playoff. Making a four-team playoff is difficult for teams without huge brands. But a 12-team playoff had plenty of room for an OSU or Baylor or Kansas State. Now, the Big 12 will have to wait until at least 2026 to reap such bounty. Lincoln Riley (Possibly): Riley’s rebuild at Southern Cal won’t be as easy with only four playoff spots available. Same goes for all the Pac-12. The Pac-12 has made the playoff only twice in eight seasons (Oregon 2014, Washington 2016). He's got an amazing recruiting base out there, it will be able getting the national exposure on a consistent basis and scheduling the teams out of conference to get attention. After first standing with the ACC and the Big Ten in expressing reservations about certain aspects of a 12-team format, the Pac-12 in recent months has been proactive in saying it would support any form of playoff expansion. The Fans: In the end, the biggest losers are college football fans. A few more weeks of good college football is thrown in the shitter so we can watch a pair of 6-6 teams duke it out in the Lick My Taint Bowl. Super excited for that.
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